The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) is set to release its next monthly housing data and quarterly forecast on Tuesday, July 15, 2025. This highly anticipated update could provide clarity on whether Canada’s housing market is finally finding its footing after months of volatility.
The last set of national data, released June 16, revealed that home sales rose 3.6% in May, marking the first monthly gain since November 2024. The boost was primarily driven by the Greater Toronto Area, Calgary, and Ottawa, three markets often seen as early indicators of national trends. CREA also noted that new listings were up 3.1%, and the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was nearly flat month-over-month, halting a three-month streak of sharper declines.
Despite this modest rebound, year-over-year comparisons still tell a more subdued story: national sales were down 4.3%, and the average sale price slipped 1.8% compared to May 2024. Inventory levels, while higher than a year ago, remain just below the long-term average, keeping conditions relatively balanced.
“It’s only one month of data, and one car doesn’t make a parade,” cautioned Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “But there is a sense that maybe the expected turnaround in housing activity this year was just delayed for a few months.”
The July 15 update will include June’s market performance as well as an updated quarterly forecast, providing forward-looking insights into how sales volumes, home prices, and supply may trend into late 2025 and 2026. For agents, investors, and buyers alike, this could be the most meaningful release since early spring.
With tariff-related uncertainty fading, and buyers cautiously re-entering the market, the next release may confirm whether May’s activity was a true inflection point, or just a temporary uptick.
CREA’s May stats offered a welcome break from the consistent slowdown seen over the past half-year. But with average prices still down and national activity below 2024 levels, calling this a “recovery” may be premature. The market appears to be in a state of hesitant balance, where buyers are waiting for interest rate clarity, and sellers are still adjusting expectations.
What’s encouraging, however, is the re-engagement of both sides of the market, more listings, more sales, and slightly improved price stability. If June data confirms a second consecutive month of gains, it could mark the start of a late-blooming upswing in Canada’s housing cycle.
Until then, July 15 is circled on the calendar. Whether you’re buying, selling, or advising clients, keep your eyes on CREA’s next move—it could signal the pace of real estate for the rest of 2025.
